ODA 2008 forecast: still at 0.29%

Estimates for 2008 ODA are difficult to forecast during the budget cycle, as ODA budgeted resources are scattered and hidden within many financial headings in different Ministries. Moreover important components such as debt relief and concessional loans are not highlighted in the budget. Finally, during last year, significant financial resources for development cooperation – 1.1 billions euros –were allocated extra-budget cycle, via special decrees, with a share of these funds is to be disbursed in 2008. The 2008 disbursement of 2007 out-of-budget allocations, together with expected extra-budget allocation in 2008 are the main responsible for the ODA peak to 0.28-0.29% in 2008, after its stalling in 2007 – 0.21-0.23%. The forecast peak is neither enough to meet the EU Barcelona 0.33% target with a two year delay nor it is sustainable - likely to decrease in 2009. Since the approval of the 2002 road map for aid increase, included in the 2003-2006 Financial perspective, Italy summed up 4.5 billions euros in aid arrears - the gap between commitments and actual disbursements.

2008 Italian ODA could further increase thanks to extra budget cycle allocations, as it occurred in 2007. Last year ODA appropriations increased between January and June (from 1.1 billion to 1.5 billion euro). According to the current projections on 2008 level, the additional disbursement of 650 million euro will be enough to meet the 0.33% target.